2024 Kentucky Derby – the narratives leading up to the run for the roses

Horse Racing
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The 2024 Kentucky Derby is fast approaching. America’s most famous horse race will be held on Saturday, May 4th, and will start at about 6.45 PM (ET).

As ever, the buzz builds up as we get closer to one of the biggest events on the sports calendar.

Bettors and racing fans are, of course, keenly watching the markets as the final runners get their confirmations and gate numbers. But what has been all the talk about in the lead-up to the race? Let’s delve into some of the main narratives for the 2024 Kentucky Derby:

A special anniversary

This will be the 150th renewal of the Kentucky Derby. First inaugurated in 1875, it is America’s oldest continually held sports event. There should be some extra special celebrations for the Kentucky Derby Festival, which takes place in the weeks leading up to the main event at Churchill Downs. This year’s Festival is effectively a month-long party featuring iconic events like the Pegasus Parade and the Great Balloon Race. While it’s plenty of fun, all eyes are on the Kentucky Derby itself.

The big race field

The final declarations aren’t known until a few days before the Kentucky Derby, but we have a fair idea of who’s going to be in and out. The Kentucky Derby odds have also taken shape, and it’s likely that either Fierceness or Sierra Leone will go off as the morning-line favorite. There’s not much to pick between the pair, and tipsters have been struggling to make a case for either’s supremacy in recent weeks.

Trending toward big odds?

The last five winners of the Kentucky Derby have had morning line odds of 15/1, 12/1, 80/1, 8/1, and 30/1 respectively. You have to go back to Justify (2019) to find a red-hot favorite winning the race. Does that mean we are trending toward longer odds winners? It’s too small a sample size to say so with conviction, yet, it is clear that there has been value in the markets in recent years.

A Japanese winner?

We have never had a Japanese winner in the Kentucky Derby, but that may change around 6.47 PM on May 4th. A lot of buzz is swirling around the undefeated Forever Young, who has had a barnstorming start to his 3yo career. It’s a big step to come to Churchill Downs and win the biggest race in the United States, but Forever Young has a brilliant trainer and a touch of stardust. Keep an eye on him.

A new star trainer

Racing fans will know all about Brad Cox, Todd Pletcher, and Bill Mott, but the Derby is often a race where reputations are forged. It’s, therefore, worth having a look at Honor Marie and his trainer, Whit Beckman. Beckman isn’t new to the game, of course; he’s been around for a while and was a former assistant to Chad Brown (trainer of Sierra Leone). Beckman opened his own public stable in 2021, and he has been building a reputation as one of the best of his generation. His horse, Honor Marie, is a long shot but has bags of stamina and may place in the race.

A return for Bob Baffert?

Hmmm, it’s unlikely. Leading trainer Bob Baffert is currently suspended by Churchill Downs as he fights an equine drugs controversy. He has taken legal action to seek a temporary injunction to allow him to run horses in the Kentucky Derby. Baffert has trained six previous winners of the iconic race. A decision from the judge is expected in the coming days.

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