Kentucky Derby 2025 – all eyes on Journalism and Baffert

Horse Racing
Security team ponder appeal

America’s biggest horse race looms on the horizon. The 2025 Kentucky Derby will go off at about 7 pm local time in Louisville on Saturday 3rd, May (just past midnight in the UK), and, as ever, it has a field of 20 runners that looks quite a puzzle for punters to solve.

On paper, there is a strong favourite – Journalism. The Santa Anita Derby winner ticks several of the boxes you’d want for a race like this, yet there are still questions as to how the horse will adapt to his first run at Churchill Downs, as well as how he will cope with a much larger field of runners.

Journalism comes in about 3/1 in the Kentucky Derby betting odds, although you might see a bit of movement in that in either direction as we approach race day. The Derby has not been a fruitful exercise for favourites in recent years, as you have to go all the way back to Justify in 2018 to find an SP favourite winning the race.

Journalism could be a Triple Crown contender

Journalism, who is trained by Michael McCarthy and will be ridden by Umberto Rispoli, does not have the same buzz around him as a Justify or American Pharoah, yet there is certainly enough about him that tongues will be wagging about a potential Triple Crown tilt as we approach Saturday.

There are a few other interesting horses taking money. Sovereignty, trained by Bill Mott, is the consensus second-favourite, with odds around 7/1. He hasn’t always been perfect in his five starts (two wins, two 2nd places), but he has a win at Churchill Downs under his belt, something the majority of his rivals lack. For most of the card, this will be their first taste of the iconic Louisville venue. Tappan Street, Sandman and Burnham Square are also of interest.

The return of Baffert will turn heads

As ever, there are a few sub-plots bubbling away in the lead-up to race day. Most notably, the return of Bob Baffert to the Kentucky Derby. Baffert – who is the joint all-time record holder in the race with six wins – returned from a three-year suspension for “medical violations.” Baffert has two entries, Citizen Bull and Rodriguez, both of whom are somewhere around 20/1 in the betting. Neither should be ruled out, and it would be typical of Baffert to take all the headlines on his return.

Of the 20 runners, two are reserved for international horses, and in recent years that has meant Japanese runners. The Japanese are really aiming for this race, and it was almost job done last year when the brilliant Forever Young lost out to Mystik Dan by a nose in one of the best finishes to the Derby in years. This time around, it will be Luxor Café (10/1) and Admire Daytona (40/1) going for glory for the Japanese.

There’s certainly room for a shock winner once again. Like the Melbourne Cup, there have been some huge-odds winners of the Derby in the 2020s, and even lower down the card punters’ eyes will be drawn to horses from trainers like Todd Pletcher and Brad Cox. The sight of Rich Strike winning at 80/1 in 2022 is still fresh in plenty of minds.

Yet, Journalism seems to have the quality to break the cycle of losing favourites. It’s a tactical race, but he is a tough stalker who seems to respond well to Rispoli’s handling. If he performs like he had done in his last three races, it could be his for the taking. Yet, the script of the Kentucky Derby isn’t always written that way.

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