Palmer Handicapper Back On Favourite Track

Rivals Publishing
December 4, 2019 7:45 am

Return To Form On Cards For Four-Year-Old At Lingfield

Horses For Courses is a racing cliche with plenty of evidence to support it and we have a prime example today that can open the bookies’ satchels.

EL GHAZWANI has raced 14 times in total, 11 on all-weather surfaces, and has entered the winners enclosure on three occasions.

All of these victories have come at today’s Lingfield venue, and all at today’s trip of a mile and two furlongs.

He has been running inconsistently since the Spring but produced a good effort when fifth at Kempton over 11 furlongs last time, beaten just a length and a half.

That was off a mark of 87 and he goes off 86 today.

Perhaps more relevant is the fact that his three wins here have come off ratings of, in chronological order, 77, 83 and 90 so again today’s weight looks a winning one.

Trainer Hugo Palmer is 16% at the course in the last five years and jockey Jack Mitchell 15%.

This rises to 20% from 157 runners when they combine and they can add to that today.

SKY DEFENDER is next best on overall BTO ratings and is second in the betting.

He has been off the course for over six months but was runner-up on debut and won at Bath in May after a break of 187 days.

Also massively in his favour is the liking for the course of the progeny of his sire Farhh which is at a very impressive 32%.

UNIVERSAL GLEAM is being backed but has been campaigned largely over a mile, though he is by Derby winner Sir Percy and 33/1 outsider of the field STAMFORD RAFFLES has some stats that would support a much tighter price, such as the 17% for his siblings at the course and over distance and going.

El Ghazwani can be found at 6/4 and can be dutched with Sky Defender at 9/2 for a profit of 70%.

G Lees